The need for an international and integral vision on the North Sea Energy transition

The North Sea region has a significant low-carbon energy potential and is poised to become ‘Europe’s green power plant’ (northseawindpowerhub.eu/knowledge/unlocking-the-north-sea-as-a-green-powerplant). Europe has committed to reduce its emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This requires a substantial expansion of offshore wind capacity, alongside emerging technologies like floating solar, offshore hydrogen production, transport & storage and carbon capture & storage (CCS), as well as the systematic phase-out of gas exploration and production.

This expansion will be extremely challenging without an integrated and coordinated approach for the North Sea. The North Sea Energy (NSE) research program employs the concept of Offshore System Integration to identify options for reducing the costs, time, emissions, space and (human) capital required to realize the central role of the North Sea envisioned in the energy transition. Smart synergies are possible between offshore wind, marine energy, CCS, natural gas and hydrogen developments, presenting a unique opportunity for the North Sea countries to become and remain a pioneering region and innovation nucleus for global offshore energy solutions.

An integrated vision and roadmap are essential to unlock the North Sea’s climate-neutral energy potential while optimizing its value for society and nature. Information is needed on the current role and future potential of energy supply, transportation, demand, conversion, and storage in the North Sea. Subsequently, short-term actions are required to enable the integration of the energy system. Such a roadmap can provide clarity and certainty to policymakers, project developers, and society. The North Sea Energy roadmap outlines updated exploratory transition pathways for offshore wind, marine energy, hydrogen, CCS, and natural gas in an integrated assessment towards 2050. These pathways are based on insights gathered during a participatory process with stakeholders both inside and outside the consortium and are aligned with national and European strategies, ambitions and targets.

In this phase of the North Sea Energy program, additional emphasis is placed on developing energy infrastructure visions towards 2050 for the four key energy commodities in the research program: electricity, hydrogen, CO2 and natural gas. Within the consortium, we have identified possible strategies to deal with challenges for system integration and have formulated actions on several main themes for all North Sea stakeholders. Additionally, we have identified sets of key actions for six offshore energy technologies and commodities (offshore wind, marine energy, offshore green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, offshore CO2 transport and storage, and natural gas) to accelerate their development and strengthen their role in the offshore energy transition. By implementing these actions, stakeholders can take significant steps towards harnessing the energy potential of the North Sea while respecting the carrying capacity of our economy, society and nature.

The North Sea Energy vision on system integration

The North Sea Energy consortium envisions the North Sea as a thriving energy region that has achieved carbon neutrality in 2050, perhaps even becoming a net negative carbon sink for Europe. Offshore energy system integration is seen as an enabler to accelerate low carbon and renewable energy options that provide reliable, low-cost energy sources for industry and other end-users on its coastline and in the hinterland. Strategic sector coupling allows deeper and faster reduction of CO2 emissions, more efficient use of marine space and effective use of energy infrastructure for conversion, transport and storage of energy commodities. A well-integrated offshore energy system enhances energy security and resilience, reducing dependence on external energy sources and strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy. This secures livelihoods to millions of people and creates new sustainable jobs for the future. Offshore system integration can provide synergies with non-energy stakeholders to develop solutions that have positive impacts on nature and safety as well as contribute to sustainable food production and to the circular economy.

The added value of system integration

Managing multi-use spatial challenges in the North Sea

Since the North Sea is one of the busiest seas in the world, it faces significant spatial challenges due to the multi-use of the area. Although this whitepaper focuses mainly on the ‘energy system’ of the North Sea, the ‘total system’ also includes, amongst others, fisheries, shipping routes, military activities and protected marine areas. The North Sea fulfills various functions and the ecological, societal and economic values of this area can result in conflicts among various stakeholders. Looking for synergies between the functions and adequately managing these interests, possibly prioritizing them and reaching consensus on the various functions, are crucial for smooth collaboration and alignment but can be highly complex.

Enhancing cross-border energy cooperation in the North Sea region

The North Sea is surrounded by nine countries, each with their own targets, legislation and infrastructure plans. When looking at the energy system from a cross-border perspective, various sources and demand clusters could be coupled, thereby increasing the efficiency of energy infrastructure and driving down costs. This not only applies to the infrastructure and asset deployment, but also international agreements, legislation and standardization.

The interaction between the four energy commodities

The further development of the energy commodities is largely dependent on the others. For example, in order to re-use existing oil and gas infrastructure (such as wells, pipelines, platforms or subsea structures for instalment) for transport and storage of CO2 or hydrogen, it should be clear where this is technically possible and when decommissioning is planned. Next to this, due to its intermittent behaviour the value of offshore wind will rely on energy flexibility in the system such as (offshore) hydrogen conversion and or storage solutions. This suggests that a cross-commodity view is beneficial for further development plans.

System integration as a solution

Many of the above-mentioned challenges can be tackled by taking a system perspective on the North Sea energy system. The North Sea Energy program is based on the concept of offshore system integration, involving the strategic coupling of all dominant low-carbon energy developments in the North Sea, including offshore wind deployment, CCS, energy hubs & islands and energy interconnections, hydrogen infrastructure, energy storage, and more. This system integration concept couples there sectors by integrating infrastructure, services and logistics, and making multifunctional use of space. From the energy perspective, this suggests to not individually consider the energy carriers, commodities and infrastructure assets, but regard them as part of one holistic and integrated energy system. By approaching the North Sea as an integrated system, the costs of the energy transition can be reduced, security of supply can be enhanced, the spatial claim and impact on nature can be mitigated, and energy system development times can be decreased.

Scenario analysis

In NSE5, key trends are examined for electricity, hydrogen, CO2 and natural gas in the North Sea region in the coming decades. The scenarios that form the basis of the 2050 pathways are TYNDP Distributed Energy (DE) scenario and Global Ambition (GA) scenario from ENTSO-E and ENTSOG for all North Sea countries, enriched with more focus using the II3050 National scenario for the Netherlands. The scenario studies are complemented with insights from detailed regional or national studies on for example offshore hydrogen production and CCS. It is important to note that this approach explores and sketches one future scenario for the North Sea region that is also categorized as ambitious for the North Sea region. This approach is taken to identify what infrastructure for the North Sea would be required and to identify bottlenecks and resolving actions for making this ambitious scenario reality. The trends of these potential pathways are explained per energy commodity.

Electricity

The North Sea countries have committed to an ambitious target of 120 GW by 2030 and at least 300 GW of offshore wind by 2050. Offshore wind shows a in such a pathway a very rapid increase and steep growth towards 2050. The steepest growth occurs between 2030-2040, which is required to meet the ambitious European targets. This means that the yearly production of the North Sea countries will increase almost tenfold towards 2050 yielding approximately 1500 TWh/yr.

Floating solar, wave and tidal energy are also depicted in the pathway figure. Their share in the offshore energy system will start having a more significant role on a longer timescale. The EU Strategy on Offshore Renewable Energy envisions about 40GW of ocean technologies. The development of ocean technologies – such as solar, wave and tidal energy – has progressed steadily over the past few years, reaching a near commercial ready technology status for niche market applications. Floating PV systems gain track with demonstration projects being planned towards the two-digit MW scale. The first large growth phase from 2030 (8GW) onwards will result in almost 20 GW of installed capacity at the end of that decade. For the year 2050, the capacity is expected to reach 30 GW, corresponding to 75% of the EU target of 40 GW by 2050 for ocean energy technologies.

Green and blue hydrogen

Blue hydrogen and offshore green hydrogen production currently represents only a minor fraction of the energy commodities. For blue hydrogen, a shift towards implementation phase is expected in the next few years. Blue hydrogen is produced and used as an energy commodity as long as there is still oil and gas production and is thereby expected to be deployed at least until 2050 and is expected to phase out with natural gas production. Green hydrogen is expected to be developed at a somewhat slower pace, as this technology is commercially still emerging. Various studies confirm that offshore conversion of electricity for hydrogen production could yield system benefits mainly by providing flexibility to the system and saving cost of both offshore and onshore electricity transmission. Depending on their assumptions different studies show a wide range of estimates for the offshore installed capacity for offshore hydrogen from zero to around 100 GWe or even higher for study outliers. The recently published Offshore Network Development Plan (ONDP) states 34 GW, equaling roughly 10% of installed wind capacity (eepublicdownloads.blob.core.windows.net/public-cdn-container/tyndp-documents/ONDP2024/web_entso-e_ONDP_PanEU_240226.pdf). The NSWPH system study indicates approximately 20% of offshore wind is directly converted to hydrogen via offshore electrolysis. Following these paths the offshore hydrogen production grows in our indicative scenario to around 225 TWh/yr in 2050. After the 2040s, the blue and green hydrogen pathways could converge and have comparable production around 2045 where blue hydrogen flattens towards 150 TWh/yr and offshore green hydrogen continuous its growth path in parallel with offshore wind deployment.

The NSE action agenda

To fully deploy a renewable and low-carbon energy system which uses system integration as an implementation strategy for the energy transition on the North Sea, an action agenda is proposed that addresses the current key challenges. This action agenda contains commodity specific and grid actions that are required for a timely development of the offshore integrated energy system. Per commodity these actions are elaborated upon in the following sections. We conclude with an overview of general thematic actions that relate to the integration of multiple commodities.

Electricity

Grid actions

For the offshore electricity grid, several actions are required that focus on a European connected network with the following timeline:

• 2030: Focus on radial connections and the first offshore hybrid elements to achieve faster deployment speeds

• 2040: Development of the first interlinked offshore clusters, with further increases towards 2050

• 2050: Continued expansion of offshore wind capacity and other marine energy sources, with a focus on reinforcing existing transmission corridors

To realize a future-proof, internationally connected electricity grid by 2050, significant technological, financial, and regulatory efforts are required. Key innovations like HVDC circuit breakers and hybrid interconnectors must be developed and standardized to efficiently transport offshore wind energy, supported by large-scale pilot projects. The offshore network will demand over €260 billion in investments by 2050, necessitating fair cost-sharing mechanisms under EU guidelines to prevent disproportionate burdens on high-capacity countries (eepublicdownloads.blob.core.windows.net/public-cdn-container/tyndp-documents/ONDP2024/ONDP2024-northern-seas.pdf). Regulatory frameworks must evolve to support hybrid interconnections and energy hubs, addressing risk, cost, and operational responsibilities. Additionally, a robust international supply chain strategy is essential to secure scarce materials, skilled labor, and logistical infrastructure, ensuring smooth and timely grid expansion.

Commodity actions

To meet offshore wind targets, early and integrated marine spatial planning is essential, involving stakeholders and considering not just wind energy but also oil and gas, hydrogen, energy storage, and carbon capture. Success depends on aligning offshore wind development with growing onshore electricity demand and flexibility solutions like industrial electrification, energy storage (batteries and hydrogen), and conversion infrastructure. Avoiding delays and ensuring financial viability requires support mechanisms to bridge rising costs and revenue uncertainties. Additionally, scaling up other offshore renewables, such as floating solar, wave, and tidal energy, through demonstration projects and integrated tenders can enhance energy system resilience and infrastructure efficiency. Regulatory frameworks must evolve to support multi-use offshore areas and remove barriers to co-deployment.

Hydrogen

Grid actions

To advance offshore hydrogen infrastructure by 2050, a coordinated international strategy is needed to plan production, storage, and reuse of existing infrastructure, supported by initiatives like the NSEC’s green hydrogen group. Strategic alignment among governments and the creation of a centralized European body (e.g., ENNOH) are key to driving cross-border investments and harmonizing standards. Demonstration projects are essential to test integration and accelerate learning. Offshore hydrogen development also requires close collaboration between electricity and hydrogen TSOs, especially in countries lacking integrated operators. Maximizing cross-country coordination (e.g., between ENNOH, the UK, and Norway) is critical to identify valuable interconnectors and ensure cohesive grid development.

Commodity actions

Offshore green hydrogen is in its early stages but progressing rapidly, with the North Sea region leading through pilot projects focused on electrolysis, transport, and storage. To scale up, a full value chain roadmap is needed, supported by coordinated stakeholder efforts, harmonized regulations, and long-term planning. Ensuring sufficient demand and reducing investment risks are critical, potentially through mechanisms like contracts for difference or integrated tenders. While green hydrogen is the long-term goal, blue hydrogen will play a transitional role through the 2030s, requiring clear timelines and investment signals. A comprehensive roadmap for both green and blue hydrogen, especially for offshore development, is essential to guide infrastructure, market design, and policy support.

CO2

Grid actions

To support the growth of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the North Sea, strategic actions are needed to build an international CCS backbone using both new and existing infrastructure. In the short term, planning must identify suitable storage sites, assess storage readiness, and coordinate with other offshore activities like wind and hydrogen to avoid spatial conflicts. Infrastructure reuse, CO₂ impurity research, and spatial modeling will enhance efficiency. A robust regulatory framework is essential for enabling cross-border transport and cooperation, especially between the UK and EU. In the medium term, a pan-North Sea coordinating body should oversee system design, align international efforts, and promote knowledge sharing. Environmental considerations and funding mechanisms like the Innovation Fund and CEF will also be key to successful deployment (Connecting Europe Facility - European Commission).

Commodity actions

The business case for CCS in the EU and UK is primarily supported by Emission Trading Schemes (ETS), which credit captured and stored CO₂ as not emitted. However, long-term liability and unclear policies, especially for cross-border projects, create investment uncertainty. Unlike traditional offshore energy ventures, CCS requires capital-intensive, long-term investments with modest returns and complex value chains, making it less attractive to investors. To mobilize private capital, early-stage investment risks must be reduced, permitting processes streamlined, and long-term policy clarity provided. A pre-competitive appraisal of CO₂ storage sites is also essential to identify viable locations and ensure timely availability of storage capacity, preventing deployment delays and supporting a stable CCS rollout.

Natural gas

Grid actions

To prepare the natural gas grid for future energy needs, key short-term actions include identifying which pipelines can be reused for hydrogen and CO₂, ensuring proper certification, safety measures, and conducting lifetime assessments. Enhancing decommissioning efficiency and strengthening security monitoring—especially for older infrastructure—is also vital. Sharing international data on reuse and decommissioning timelines will support centralized planning. In the medium term, a cross-country strategy should guide the reuse and decommissioning of platforms and pipelines, providing clarity for investors and asset owners. This includes planning for rerouting infrastructure, addressing supply chain constraints, and mapping decommissioning peaks to optimize resource allocation.

Commodity actions

Electrifying active hydrocarbon platforms in the North Sea can significantly reduce emissions from natural gas production and transport, with several pilot projects already underway. A short-term international plan is needed to assess the technical and economic feasibility of electrifying both new and existing platforms, particularly where offshore wind or marine energy is nearby. Given the uncertainty around the future of natural gas in the region, a stable, long-term strategy outlining national production, import, storage, and consumption is essential to guide investment and infrastructure planning, especially for CCS and hydrogen integration. To support a coexisting energy system, efforts should also focus on minimizing the spatial footprint of natural gas operations through innovations in exploration, installation, and monitoring.

An integrated perspective

The future transitions of the four offshore energy commodities and their technologies cannot be seen in isolation; they are highly entangled. By taking an integrated perspective, problems can be tackled together, paving the way for sufficient market development, efficient infrastructure planning and reduced decarbonization costs. Integrated areas need to be appointed that combine various commodities, together with an internationally interconnected transportation system.